"Among the hazards of speculation the happening of the unexpected—I
might even say of the unexpectable—ranks high...there have been times in
my career as a speculator when I have both been right and played square
and nevertheless I have been cheated out of my earnings.
"Against misdeeds by crooks, cowards and crowds a quick-thinking or
far-sighted businessman can protect himself...But against the whining
welsher the decent man is powerless. Fair play is fair play." -- Edwin Levefre, Reminiscences of a Stock Operator
Knowing how slick Musk is and how high his government connections are, this
whole thing is probably another charade so the Saudis can buy the dip
and get a more favourable entry price. The mob of lawyers have already
determined whether or not a piece of paper with ink on it exists.
Whenever a bunch of people (lawyers or otherwise) simultaneously appear on
TV interviews saying the exact same thing, coming to identical
conclusions, it usually means they're all wrong/sticking to a script. When everyone is on one side of the boat, get to the other side.
A necessary condition of a market is to cause maximum pain to the
maximum amount of participants, and right now those are the shorts. It's not
an axiom of markets, but something that happens frequently enough to
warrant sufficient guarding against.
Therefore use common sense in investing—it's more valuable than anything you learn in a textbook. How long do you suppose it takes a flock of lawyers to determine if Musk is in possession of a piece of paper with ink on it? That's what current SEC investigation boils down to. It doesn't take long. The FBI cooked up a warrant to wiretap Trump in less time.
All this does not negate the fact that the equity of the company is
worth zero by any valuation metric--traditional or proprietary. However,
reality, and economic and criminal laws don't apply to Deep State. The
rules are arbitrary so the outcomes are technically infinite. The underlying issue with Tesla is much broader than securities valuation, and involves much more than the stock market.
I'd advise against shorting Tesla stock, as it effectively equates to shorting The Deep State, and they usually don't lose. Ask Hillary. https://www.nationalreview.com/2016/06/hillary-clinton-cattle-futures-windfall/
