Friday, 30 June 2017

It's an Anglo Thing

The central bank race to cut and print has now turned into the race to hike and reduce, with North America leading the charge, and the Anglo cousins trailing slightly behind. The Fed has passed the hurdle of raising interest rates and has moved on to addressing a reduction in the balance sheet, which itself has been flat for the last three years. Additionally, The BOC and BOE are both signaling that its days of increasing quantitative easing and lowering rates have come to an end, and the next moves in interest rates are more likely to be hikes rather than cuts. This leaves the ECB and the BOJ far behind the curve, as Mario "any means necessary" Draghi still hints toward more quantitative stimulus, and has not made clear any plan to address a reduction in the balance sheet any time in the near future. The general concern among central banks seems to have made a U-turn: "how will the Fed ever raise interest rates without triggering a recession" has turned into "how will the ECB and BOJ ever get on the same rate path as the Fed, The BOC, and The BOE.

Open positions (6-30-2017)

Thursday, 29 June 2017

Quote of the Day, from ROSO

"A brilliant operator, James R. Keene! His private secretary told me that when the market was going his way Mr. Keene was irascible; and those who knew him say his irascibility was expressed in sardonic phrases that lingered long in the memory of his hearers. But when he was losing he was in the best of humour, a polished man of the world, agreeable, epigrammatic, interesting. He had in superlative degree the qualities of mind that are associated with successful speculators anywhere. That he did not argue with the tape is plain. He was utterly fearless but never reckless. He could and did turn in a twinkling, if he found he was wrong" (Lefevre, 1923).