Monday 4 December 2017

Overshadowed Bullish Items Over the Weekend

Three bullish news items over the weekend that were overshadowed by Flynn-related fake news:

1. The tax cuts are basically a done deal. The discrepancies between the House and the Senate bill are negligible. The "22%" rumour is false. Both Senate and House versions have the corp rate at 20%.

2. The tax bill effectively scraps the Obamacare individual mandate - which means an uptick in M&A activity. Weak, under-capitalized insurance companies lose the subsidy and are zombies for the most part. Think of those companies as the dead trees and debris that are swept away during a healthy forest fire - the nutrients return to the soil, replenishing the forest.

3. Goldman Sachs raises its 2018 GDP forecast to 4% (Jan Hatzius has a strong forecasting track record).