At this point, several factors suggest that the result of the Doha talks has little to do with the real overall global supply/demand outlook. Firstly, slowing global economic growth makes a production freeze self-defeating. The Saudi and Russian governments are both starved for cash; reducing any form of income when growth is necessarily dependent upon deficit spending is comparable to shooting yourself in the foot with your own gun. The Saudi government is running at a near record budget deficit, so a production freeze means they would be forced to add to that deficit, or add to the difficulties of paying it down, i.e. reducing government expenditures
Secondly, the Russian economy is currently in recession. They're unlikely to opt to worsen the effects by cutting back on revenues, which are sorely needed for fiscal stimulus. Russia's debt to GDP ratio is not nearly as high as Saudi Arabia's, however, slower global growth and lower oil prices have taken a toll on government revenues which provides a generous incentive to forego a production freeze.
Finally, since 2009, essentially every government and central bank of the developed world has sustained asset prices by way of various forms of fiscal stimuli. This has hiked up sovereign debt levels in the process without creating any self-sustaining, productive, economic activity. As a result, government and central bank spending/printing is currently required on a perpetual basis in order to maintain any level of meaningful GDP growth (an extreme of the Keynesian Cross/Multiplier model).
Since 2012 Saudia Arabia's total government revenue fell by roughly (-56%); from $1.2 trillion to $546 billion today. Losing 14% percent of government revenues for four consecutive years while the country's economic growth relies on government spending details a situations that is just short of a national economic crisis. Add to that the fact that the Saudi regime is currently undergoing a reorganization of leadership in which the final decision on economic policy is held by a younger, locally educated man with decidedly different perspectives on the relegation of power and resources.
Fragile internal politics, falling revenue/subsidies, and tepid global economic growth has created risk averse regimes that are unlikely to gamble too heavily on the ability to manipulate global oil prices via a freeze in production.
